CFT COTS Data Analysis

Our tool breaks down CFT data into two key categories, each offering unique insights:

• Commodities (Managed Money and Other Reportable): Tracks positions in markets like gold, crude oil, and silver. Managed money—hedge funds and commodity trading advisors—represents speculative bets. A net long of 50,000 contracts in gold futures might indicate bullish sentiment, while other reportable positions (large traders outside managed money) could show institutional hedging trends. For example, the data from February 11, 2025, shows managed money with 210,539 long contracts (up +6,267) and 80,235 short contracts (up +20,099), signaling bullish activity with a net of 130,304.
• Finance (Leveraged Money and Other Reportable): Focuses on financial futures like currencies (e.g., EUR/USD) and indices (e.g., S&P 500). Leveraged money—traders using borrowed funds—can amplify market moves; high shorts in Euro futures might signal a bearish outlook, while other reportable positions offer broader market context. As of February 11, 2025, leveraged money shows 14,117 long contracts (up +383) and 11,648 short contracts (down -253), with a net of 2,469, indicating a slight bullish tilt.

In our CFT data tables, green and red indicators represent changes in open interest (OI), long, short, and net positions week-over-week, providing critical insights into market dynamics. Here’s what they mean:

• Green (Increases): Indicates a rise in positions from the previous week, suggesting increased activity or confidence in that direction. For example, in the commodities table on February 11, 2025, managed money’s long contracts increased by +6,267 (green), signaling growing bullish sentiment in commodities like gold or silver. In finance, leveraged money’s long contracts rose by +383 (green) on the same date, hinting at emerging bullish interest in financial futures. Green increases in net positions (e.g., managed money net of 130,304 on Feb 11, 2025) often indicate strengthening trends, ideal for trend-following traders.
• Red (Decreases): Indicates a drop in positions, suggesting reduced activity, profit-taking, or bearish sentiment. For instance, leveraged money’s short contracts decreased by -253 (red) on February 11, 2025, which could imply less bearish pressure in financial futures. In commodities, other reportables’ short contracts dropped by -341 (red) on the same date, potentially signaling less hedging or short-covering. Red decreases in net positions (e.g., other reportables net dropping to -1,492 on Feb 11, 2025) might indicate weakening bearish sentiment or a potential reversal point for contrarian traders.

These color-coded changes help traders quickly identify shifts in market sentiment. For example, a series of green increases in managed money longs (e.g., from Jan 7 to Feb 11, 2025, rising from 295,756 to 210,539) could confirm a bullish trend, while consistent red decreases in leveraged money shorts might suggest fading bearish pressure, offering opportunities for strategic entries or exits.

Leverage CFT data with these actionable strategies, informed by market research and tailored to commodity and financial markets:

• Trend Following with Large Speculators: Align with managed money (commodities) or leveraged money (finance). If managed money in silver shows a 30,000 net long over 60 days, buy silver futures, expecting an uptrend. Use the tool’s 60-day filter to confirm sustained positions, noting green increases like +6,267 in longs on Feb 11, 2025.
• Contrarian Against Commercial Hedgers: Commercial hedgers often counter market moves. If they’re net short 20,000 contracts in crude oil while managed money is net long, go long, anticipating a rally as speculators overpower hedgers, watching for red decreases in hedger shorts.
• Fading Extremes: Extreme positions signal reversals. If leveraged money in S&P 500 futures reaches a historic high of 40,000 net shorts, short the index, betting on an overbought correction. Check 100-day historical data for extremes, noting red decreases as signals.
• Divergence Analysis: Opposing positions between groups can predict volatility. If managed money in gold is net long and leveraged money in financials is net short, expect price swings—use range-bound strategies like straddles, observing green and red shifts in nets.
• Seasonal and Expiry Plays: Near expiries or seasonal peaks (e.g., natural gas in winter), align with managed money trends. A 15,000 net long in natural gas before winter suggests a buy, leveraging seasonal demand spikes, tracked via green long increases.

Combine these with price action and other indicators for robust trades. For instance, during the 2021 silver squeeze, fading extreme managed money longs led to profitable shorts as prices corrected [TradingView COT Analysis](https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=COMEX%3ASI1!).